As geopolitical pressure on Iran's theocratic government intensifies, a key question has gone largely unanswered in Washington and Jerusalem: what comes next? In a new analysis published in RealClearWorld, Jamsheed K. Choksy, distinguished professor of Iranian Studies in the Hamilton Lugar School's Department of Central Eurasian Studies, and Carol E. B. Choksy, senior lecturer of strategic intelligence in IU's Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering and affiliated faculty member in the Hamilton Lugar School's Center for the Study of the Middle East, offer a concrete blueprint for what a post-theocratic Iran could look like—and why getting there does not have to repeat the failures of Afghanistan or Iraq.
In "An Orderly Regime Transition Is Possible in Iran," the authors argue that Iran's existing constitutional and administrative architecture could serve as the scaffolding for a functioning democratic state—provided the country's theocratic overlay is carefully dismantled. The piece walks through the specific institutions that would need to be dissolved or reformed: the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Assembly of Experts, the Council of Guardians, the Expediency Discernment Council, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. With those structures removed, the Choksys contend, Iran's remaining governmental machinery—including direct elections for president and parliament—could quickly evolve into a transparent, secular, and representative system.
The authors also identify a realistic political path forward. Figures such as current President Masoud Pezeshkian and longtime power broker Ali Larijani have, at various points, shown independence from hardline ideology and may be open to negotiated transition. Opposition leaders tied to the 2009 Green Movement represent another potential pillar of a new order. Even a monarchist element, the Choksys note, could be incorporated if Reza Pahlavi were to gain broad popular support—though they observe that President Trump has expressed skepticism about exile-based leadership.
Critically, the piece urges Washington to act with strategic restraint. Israeli strikes have eliminated several Iranian officials who might have served as pragmatic interlocutors—a development even Trump has acknowledged with concern. The Choksys call on U.S. policymakers to engage receptive figures within the current regime alongside well-known opposition voices, with the goal of achieving a clean break from clerical rule while preserving the state institutions that could sustain a modern, outward-looking Iran.
This RealClearWorld piece is the latest in a series of collaborations in which the Choksys bring complementary expertise to bear on Iranian affairs—Jamsheed Choksy's deep knowledge of Iranian history and governance, honed also through his work as director of the Hamilton Lugar School's Inner Asian and Uralic National Resource Center, alongside Carol Choksy's background in strategic intelligence. Their ongoing work, spanning Foreign Affairs and E-International Relations, reflects the Hamilton Lugar School's commitment to bridging rigorous area studies scholarship with timely, policy-relevant analysis.
